(no subject)

"Scooter" Libby is gone, and if there's a trial, it'll be quite interesting. National Security will obscure most of it, but it will certainly bring to light that Cheney is the most powerful Vice President in the last century, and perhaps in the history of the office. Interestingly, the charges against Libby mirror Bill Clinton's in the Whitewater matter -- conspiracy, obstruction of justice, and perjury, not the willful "outing" of an undercover CIA operative (or, in Clinton's case, fraud and illegal influence on a development deal). Clinton's deal generated a lot of convicted felons surrounding Starr's target, but the Clintons themselves skated. I'm sure the Bush/Cheney duo will skate as well, unless Cheney made an obvious lie under oath (don't count on it). Predictably, the Republican machine will duplicate last administration's Democratic machine and denounce the whole thing as a witch hunt, precisely because the felonies in question don't match the original felonies investigated. And Americans think politics are boring.

If Cheney does get indicted, that would make things politically interesting. As a man who is unelectable in 2008 (by his own choice as well as health factors), the 2008 election was going to be completely open -- a new Republican running against a new Democrat. If Cheney resigns, Bush gets to appoint a new Veep (with congressional approval). If he selects Condi Rice.... 2008 would be interesting. That's too many "ifs" for Washington, though. My bet is Cheney will be flipping off the Dems until January 20th, 2009, unless heart attack #5 (or 6 or 7) gets him first.

Rove's days are probably numbered -- spinning a prosecutor is probably just outside of Rove's legendary abilities. If I were the prosecutor, though, I'd want to make sure my case was pretty tight before informing Rove and his lawyers. Rove's spin against Patrick Fitzgerald will be just as vicious (though much less colorful) than James Carville's spin against Ken Starr.