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Super Tuesday I Ponderings
Feb. 4th, 2004 08:22 am(LJ first posted three versions of this last night, then just ate the whole thing, so it's sort of a repost. Apologies to some for being subjected to politics twice in 12 hours ;)
Lieberman out, the one man I actually respected of the nine Dems who ran. Kerry and Edwards with good wins. Dean over, Clark done, Sharpton may not even get a speech at the convention, Kucinich who? Gore a non-entity after backing Dean, and both Clintons shaky after the behind-the-scenes support of Clark. Hillary is half hoping Bush gets another four years.
Edwards is the dark horse -- two southern states coming up next week, though Washington on Saturday won't even notice him. Two huge liberal states, California and NY, on March 2nd, the nail in the coffin for the loser. My lean is still for Kerry by the Dems at this point. Who gets the Veep? Neither would go wrong with Lieberman, but I'm thinking he'll sit this out. I'm guessing Veep will be none of the original nine candidates.
The election? Too far away yet. Kerry is peaking soon (Edwards is peaking perhaps too late) and Bush hasn't even started campaigning yet in a national sense, but for one issue. Bush threw down a gauntlet by proclaiming he will find bin Laden by this fall -- if he misses, he's lost. Kerry and the Dems are basing a lot on the economy -- if jobs pick up and the rest of the economy continues to perk along, he's going to be doom and gloom with no foundation. Presidents actually have little to do with the short-term economy, so I'm guessing the summer economy will cook along nicely, making the warm months a bloodbath of political hate and venom from both sides.
It's tragically sad that the only thing that will decidedly help either candidate is a huge negative -- a major terrorist attack will help Bush, and a tanked economy will help the Dem.
But, the year is young, and there is a long way to go.
Lieberman out, the one man I actually respected of the nine Dems who ran. Kerry and Edwards with good wins. Dean over, Clark done, Sharpton may not even get a speech at the convention, Kucinich who? Gore a non-entity after backing Dean, and both Clintons shaky after the behind-the-scenes support of Clark. Hillary is half hoping Bush gets another four years.
Edwards is the dark horse -- two southern states coming up next week, though Washington on Saturday won't even notice him. Two huge liberal states, California and NY, on March 2nd, the nail in the coffin for the loser. My lean is still for Kerry by the Dems at this point. Who gets the Veep? Neither would go wrong with Lieberman, but I'm thinking he'll sit this out. I'm guessing Veep will be none of the original nine candidates.
The election? Too far away yet. Kerry is peaking soon (Edwards is peaking perhaps too late) and Bush hasn't even started campaigning yet in a national sense, but for one issue. Bush threw down a gauntlet by proclaiming he will find bin Laden by this fall -- if he misses, he's lost. Kerry and the Dems are basing a lot on the economy -- if jobs pick up and the rest of the economy continues to perk along, he's going to be doom and gloom with no foundation. Presidents actually have little to do with the short-term economy, so I'm guessing the summer economy will cook along nicely, making the warm months a bloodbath of political hate and venom from both sides.
It's tragically sad that the only thing that will decidedly help either candidate is a huge negative -- a major terrorist attack will help Bush, and a tanked economy will help the Dem.
But, the year is young, and there is a long way to go.
