(no subject)
Sep. 16th, 2001 05:54 pmPolitics, world and domestic, have been an interest of mine for a long time. Ignoring any "should we/shouldn't we" arguments for now, there are some interesting developments occurring with the way this thing is shaking out.
The Afghan border, and the question of US cooperation: Afghanistan is bordered by struggling former Soviet states (e.g. Uzbekistan), Iran, and Pakistan. Though Iran gave a very harsh condemnation of the terrorist acts, and Iran never really got along with a separately fundamentalist Taliban, the distrust runs a little too deep between the US and Iran for military cooperation. The former Soviet states like the US in inverse proportion to their dislike of Russia. They are mostly Muslim, but quite poor. Pretty hard to get troops into without going through Russia. Then there is Pakistan.
Pakistan -- Islamic, yet more moderate than its neighbors. Slightly democratic, with universal suffrage, yet a different electorate and parliament seat-count for non-Muslims. Currently under a suspended constitution with the new dictator General Musharraf (ironically, this is the guy whose name Bush mangled or forgot during his campaign press interview -- betcha Bush knows this guy's shoe size, now.) Musharraf is less than two years in office.
It's late 1999. A successful coup. Musharraf is worried. He has a newly-nuclear India breathing down his neck. So, he plays the Islam trump card, makes some friendly overtures to other Islamic states, notably Afghanistan, his fundamentalist neighbor who will soon blow up some ancient Buddhist statues. Musharraf allows some money destined for bin Laden and the Taliban to go through some Pakistani banks. Afghanistan is now Musharraf's hole card against an Indian attack.
2001 -- Shit hits the fan. bin Laden actually pulls off a civilian attack and has 50% of the world royally pissed off, and 48% of the world absolutely terrified of what is going to happen now. Musharraf is pinned into a tiny four corner box: 1) Afghanistan, formerly his ace-in-the-hole, is now the biggest liability on the planet. 2) Whatever he does, he can't piss off India. 3) His own people, knowing their chumminess with Afghanistan, will revolt if the US attacks Pakistan and causes more hardship than they're already facing. 4) The US is making some serious demands to choose sides.
The US's view of Pakistan: Here's a dictator who wants to stay in power with a history of dealing to guarantee security of Pakistan (and himself). Yes, they probably helped send money and support to bin Laden, but was it idealistic brotherhood, or self-interest? If the latter we can deal. We'll give them the benefit of the doubt for one scary reason: Pakistan is the only (known) Islamic country with nukes. The US will do almost anything practical to keep Pakistan on our side, not Afghanistan's.
So, we cut them a deal. Help us. Let our troops set up. Let our planes fly overhead. Use your political relationship to act as a messenger. And, when it comes to perhaps helping this thing to have happened in the first place, we'll look the other way and assume you didn't know what was going on.
Pakistan's only choice isn't exactly bad for them (at the moment). With a huge US (and NATO) presence inside Pakistani borders, Pakistan is immune from India. The Pakistani people will make money and business off of the troops. The world will forget the Afghan involvement and, perhaps, make Pakistan look like the good guys for once. Musharraf will be a player on the world stage, giving him some international legitimacy. His only downside, and it's a big one, will be potential Afghan reprisals along a 2400km border.
The Afghan border, and the question of US cooperation: Afghanistan is bordered by struggling former Soviet states (e.g. Uzbekistan), Iran, and Pakistan. Though Iran gave a very harsh condemnation of the terrorist acts, and Iran never really got along with a separately fundamentalist Taliban, the distrust runs a little too deep between the US and Iran for military cooperation. The former Soviet states like the US in inverse proportion to their dislike of Russia. They are mostly Muslim, but quite poor. Pretty hard to get troops into without going through Russia. Then there is Pakistan.
Pakistan -- Islamic, yet more moderate than its neighbors. Slightly democratic, with universal suffrage, yet a different electorate and parliament seat-count for non-Muslims. Currently under a suspended constitution with the new dictator General Musharraf (ironically, this is the guy whose name Bush mangled or forgot during his campaign press interview -- betcha Bush knows this guy's shoe size, now.) Musharraf is less than two years in office.
It's late 1999. A successful coup. Musharraf is worried. He has a newly-nuclear India breathing down his neck. So, he plays the Islam trump card, makes some friendly overtures to other Islamic states, notably Afghanistan, his fundamentalist neighbor who will soon blow up some ancient Buddhist statues. Musharraf allows some money destined for bin Laden and the Taliban to go through some Pakistani banks. Afghanistan is now Musharraf's hole card against an Indian attack.
2001 -- Shit hits the fan. bin Laden actually pulls off a civilian attack and has 50% of the world royally pissed off, and 48% of the world absolutely terrified of what is going to happen now. Musharraf is pinned into a tiny four corner box: 1) Afghanistan, formerly his ace-in-the-hole, is now the biggest liability on the planet. 2) Whatever he does, he can't piss off India. 3) His own people, knowing their chumminess with Afghanistan, will revolt if the US attacks Pakistan and causes more hardship than they're already facing. 4) The US is making some serious demands to choose sides.
The US's view of Pakistan: Here's a dictator who wants to stay in power with a history of dealing to guarantee security of Pakistan (and himself). Yes, they probably helped send money and support to bin Laden, but was it idealistic brotherhood, or self-interest? If the latter we can deal. We'll give them the benefit of the doubt for one scary reason: Pakistan is the only (known) Islamic country with nukes. The US will do almost anything practical to keep Pakistan on our side, not Afghanistan's.
So, we cut them a deal. Help us. Let our troops set up. Let our planes fly overhead. Use your political relationship to act as a messenger. And, when it comes to perhaps helping this thing to have happened in the first place, we'll look the other way and assume you didn't know what was going on.
Pakistan's only choice isn't exactly bad for them (at the moment). With a huge US (and NATO) presence inside Pakistani borders, Pakistan is immune from India. The Pakistani people will make money and business off of the troops. The world will forget the Afghan involvement and, perhaps, make Pakistan look like the good guys for once. Musharraf will be a player on the world stage, giving him some international legitimacy. His only downside, and it's a big one, will be potential Afghan reprisals along a 2400km border.