petermarcus (![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
petermarcus) wrote2002-12-31 07:47 pm
petermarcus) wrote2002-12-31 07:47 pm
(no subject)
I've been going back and forth all night trying to decide if I'm gonna go out tonight. I'm thinking no...too much travel lately, a quiet night is a rarity lately.
In the meantime, I'll try to be psychic. Something I'm bad at when I try to do it on purpose. I'll be surprised if I hit 25%...
Random Predictions for 2003:
The US Economy -- will be sluggish until fall. Terrorism and war will chip away at any real business gains. No recession, but no real recovery, either. Early in the year, jobs will be lost in manufacturing industries, but will be gained in service industries. By late summer, service will layoff, and manufacturing will hire. The housing market will continue to boom, due to astonishingly low rates. In fall, after flatline summer doldrums and war drums stabilize, tech and medical stocks will rise and a small boomlet will occur. The Dow will gain 15% in those three months. Delta Airlines will flirt with bankruptcy and United Airlines will be close to coming out, yet air travel prices will be at a 5-year low.
War #1 -- Bombing will begin in Iraq on or around the 15th of February. Saddam will go missing immediately, and be confirmed dead in early March. More US soldiers will die in training accidents than in actual shooting warfare. Less than 10,000 Iraqi soldier deaths, less than 1,000 Iraqi civilian deaths, though the civilian deaths will be virtually ignored by everyone but the network media and NPR. Taraq Aziz will surrender unconditionally to UN (not US or UK) forces. Aziz will try to form the new Iraqi government, and will be given a lot of trouble from Iraqi ex-pats.
War #2 -- The War on Terror will continue all year. Around mid-March, either bin Laden or Mullah Omar (or both) will be captured in Pakistan by a joint Pakistani/US Special Forces covert operation. Al Qaeda attacks will occur sporadically, mostly in continental Europe and Africa. A minor operation will occur in the US in the summer, spawning a two-month news cycle of doom. Dozens of attacks will be thwarted, none of the facts of which will ever see the light of day. AQ prisoners will continue to be held in Cuba, against the Geneva Convention, though the number will be around 100.
War #3 -- North Korea. After swift US victory against Iraq, and the high profile Taliban capture(s), North Korea will back down after months of brinkmanship, probably late March.
Dubya/Congress -- After the surrender of Iraq, capture of bin Laden/Omar, and the North Korean backpedaling, all occurring (completely coincidentally) within a couple weeks, Bush's approval rating will be in the neighborhood of 85%. He will try to push through Congress more tax cuts, some domestic policies such as teacher evaluation reform, and begin drilling for oil on the Northern Slope of Alaska. Congress, controlled by Republicans and drunk over Dubya's approval ratings, will go overboard in rhetoric and be royally slammed in the press and public.
Democrats -- will be running all year. Their strategy will be to throw everything at the wall and see what the public notices is sticking. This strategy will work -- by summer, Democrats will be pounding on two or three domestic issues of real consequence and Dubya/Republicans will start to make real concessions. A real, credible Democratic presidential contender will appear from this chaos, and it won't be Kerry, Daschle, Gephart, Hillary, Gore, or Lieberman.
Resignations -- More major resignations from the Bush cabinet, but not State, Defense, or Justice (which is good, okay, and bad.) Two supreme court justices will resign, both conservative, probably Rehnquist. There'll be talk of O'Connor being new Chief Justice (and the first woman Chief), but she'll probably be the other one to retire. Both new Bush appointees will be conservative, yet women or minorities. Greenspan will retire once the stock market looks like it's stable (though not necessarily booming.) Whenever anyone retires, cabinet, court, or congress, Guilliani's name will be immediately floated as a replacement.
Israel -- repeat of the last 5 years. Or 50. Or 500. Israel will back off. Temporary truce. Palistinian terrorists will then blow up some Israeli civilians, but this time, Israel will force out or "accidentally" kill Arafat, probably mid-summer.
In the meantime, I'll try to be psychic. Something I'm bad at when I try to do it on purpose. I'll be surprised if I hit 25%...
Random Predictions for 2003:
The US Economy -- will be sluggish until fall. Terrorism and war will chip away at any real business gains. No recession, but no real recovery, either. Early in the year, jobs will be lost in manufacturing industries, but will be gained in service industries. By late summer, service will layoff, and manufacturing will hire. The housing market will continue to boom, due to astonishingly low rates. In fall, after flatline summer doldrums and war drums stabilize, tech and medical stocks will rise and a small boomlet will occur. The Dow will gain 15% in those three months. Delta Airlines will flirt with bankruptcy and United Airlines will be close to coming out, yet air travel prices will be at a 5-year low.
War #1 -- Bombing will begin in Iraq on or around the 15th of February. Saddam will go missing immediately, and be confirmed dead in early March. More US soldiers will die in training accidents than in actual shooting warfare. Less than 10,000 Iraqi soldier deaths, less than 1,000 Iraqi civilian deaths, though the civilian deaths will be virtually ignored by everyone but the network media and NPR. Taraq Aziz will surrender unconditionally to UN (not US or UK) forces. Aziz will try to form the new Iraqi government, and will be given a lot of trouble from Iraqi ex-pats.
War #2 -- The War on Terror will continue all year. Around mid-March, either bin Laden or Mullah Omar (or both) will be captured in Pakistan by a joint Pakistani/US Special Forces covert operation. Al Qaeda attacks will occur sporadically, mostly in continental Europe and Africa. A minor operation will occur in the US in the summer, spawning a two-month news cycle of doom. Dozens of attacks will be thwarted, none of the facts of which will ever see the light of day. AQ prisoners will continue to be held in Cuba, against the Geneva Convention, though the number will be around 100.
War #3 -- North Korea. After swift US victory against Iraq, and the high profile Taliban capture(s), North Korea will back down after months of brinkmanship, probably late March.
Dubya/Congress -- After the surrender of Iraq, capture of bin Laden/Omar, and the North Korean backpedaling, all occurring (completely coincidentally) within a couple weeks, Bush's approval rating will be in the neighborhood of 85%. He will try to push through Congress more tax cuts, some domestic policies such as teacher evaluation reform, and begin drilling for oil on the Northern Slope of Alaska. Congress, controlled by Republicans and drunk over Dubya's approval ratings, will go overboard in rhetoric and be royally slammed in the press and public.
Democrats -- will be running all year. Their strategy will be to throw everything at the wall and see what the public notices is sticking. This strategy will work -- by summer, Democrats will be pounding on two or three domestic issues of real consequence and Dubya/Republicans will start to make real concessions. A real, credible Democratic presidential contender will appear from this chaos, and it won't be Kerry, Daschle, Gephart, Hillary, Gore, or Lieberman.
Resignations -- More major resignations from the Bush cabinet, but not State, Defense, or Justice (which is good, okay, and bad.) Two supreme court justices will resign, both conservative, probably Rehnquist. There'll be talk of O'Connor being new Chief Justice (and the first woman Chief), but she'll probably be the other one to retire. Both new Bush appointees will be conservative, yet women or minorities. Greenspan will retire once the stock market looks like it's stable (though not necessarily booming.) Whenever anyone retires, cabinet, court, or congress, Guilliani's name will be immediately floated as a replacement.
Israel -- repeat of the last 5 years. Or 50. Or 500. Israel will back off. Temporary truce. Palistinian terrorists will then blow up some Israeli civilians, but this time, Israel will force out or "accidentally" kill Arafat, probably mid-summer.
no subject
Re:
The best one I heard the other day was: "Marriage of J.Lo and Ben Affleck: The first for him, the third for her, and the last for neither"
How ya feeling?
Re:
I've been better. Wishing this queasiness and weakness would go away.